England’s heartbreaking penalty shootout defeat to Italy in the 2021 European Championship final left fans wondering if they had missed their best shot at major tournament glory. But with Euro 2024 on the horizon, hope springs eternal. According to Opta’s pre-tournament projections, Gareth Southgate’s squad tops the list of favorites to win in Germany.
Opta’s prediction model gives England a 19.9% chance of lifting the trophy, the highest among all teams. This is rare territory for England, often not regarded as outright favorites in major tournaments. Southgate’s men lead the pack, but the journey to victory is fraught with challenges.
France, always a formidable opponent, follows closely with a 19.1% chance of winning Euro 2024. Didier Deschamps’ team, which knocked England out of the 2022 World Cup, is poised for another deep run.
The model suggests a high probability of both England and France reaching the semi-finals, with near-equal chances of 48.2% and 48.1%, respectively.
Germany, the host nation, rounds out the top three with a 12.4% chance of winning. Julian Nagelsmann’s squad will undoubtedly leverage home advantage, making them a strong contender despite a slightly lower probability.
Opta’s model uses a combination of betting market odds and team rankings based on historical and recent performances. It factors in opponent strength and the difficulty of each team’s path to the final, making these predictions robust and data-driven.
The tournament format also means the top two teams from each of the six groups, plus the four best third-placed teams, advance to the knockout stages. This system ensures even the best teams must stay sharp throughout the group stage to avoid early elimination.
Here’s how the Opta Supercomputer ranks the top contenders:
- England: 19.9% chance of winning
- France: 19.1% chance of winning
- Germany: 12.4% chance of winning
- Spain: 9.6% chance of winning
- Portugal: 9.2% chance of winning
Other notable teams include the Netherlands and Italy, with chances of 5.1% and 5%, respectively. Belgium also has a solid 4.7% chance, while Denmark and Croatia have slimmer odds but could still surprise.
For Scotland, the outlook is challenging. Steve Clarke’s team is in Group A, one of the most evenly matched groups. They have a 58.9% chance of reaching the last 16, contending with Germany, Switzerland, and Hungary. Scotland’s opener against Germany on June 14 will set the tone for their campaign.
Euro 2024 promises excitement and drama as Europe’s best teams vie for glory. While England, France, and Germany lead the predictions, the beauty of football lies in its unpredictability. Fans will be on the edge of their seats, hoping their team can defy the odds and lift the coveted trophy.